Anglers’ Probabilities of Catching Record-Size Fish

—Most state fishery management agencies publish lists of the largest (e.g., 10, 25, and 50) specimens of each species captured by anglers. We fitted normal distributions for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu and striped bass Morone saxatilis and a mixture of two normal distributions of largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides to the length of time that individual fish had been present on lists of the largest 50 specimens of each species caught by Texas anglers using rod and reel. In any given year, there is only a probability (p) of 0.102 that a largemouth bass large enough to make the recordweight list will be captured. There is a smaller probability that a record-weight smallmouth bass (p 5 0.032) or striped bass (p 5 0.021) will be captured in a given year. We suggest that record-weight lists with long turnover times (implying low probabilities that anglers will catch record-weight fish) may discourage interest and participation in angling, and we propose modifications to current record lists. Most U.S. state fishery management agencies publish lists of the largest (e.g., 10, 25, and 50) specimens of each species captured by anglers, which are often maintained as part of angler recognition programs. Although the primary purpose of angler recognition programs is to promote and stimulate interest in recreational angling, Quinn (1987) suggested several possible uses for the data collected as part of these programs, such as identifying the characteristics of lakes that produce trophy fish and evaluating management actions. However, with few exceptions (Modde and Scalet 1985; Wilde and Pope 2004, this issue), these data have received little use. In this paper we present an analysis of the time that three species of fish remain on a state record-weight list that is maintained as part of an angler recognition program. We assess anglers’ chances of catching recordweight fishes and suggest modifications of recordweight lists published in many states, and we comment on the utility of statistical models for assessing changes in the frequency of capture of re-